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PVBL: Punxatawney Groundhogs
Division Preview--Riker
April 18, 2000
TAMPA BAY METS
Owner--Chris McMurtry
It really looks like Chris tried hard last year to improve his team. While
he didn't do a real good job, he made like 8 or 9 different trades, and it
seems to be paying off this year.
Lineup:
Rookie Richard Hidalgo hits leadoff. There's really no choice because
nobody else, save Magglio Ordonez and Harold Reynolds, has over 50 speed.
Lyle Mouton is nothing special batting second, and Rick Wilkins isn't a good
enough hitter or fast enough to hit 3rd. Mark Whiten brings a solid bat to
the cleanup role, but things go downhill from there. Magglio Ordonez will
be good eventually, and is a great prospect now, but a far cry from a real
5th hitter. Rico Brogna is a carbon copy of Rick Wilkins with a bit more
pop. Harold Reynolds and Wade Boggs have a combined age somewhere near that
of God. And Rey Ordonez, while he has a wonderful glove, still can't hit
worth a damn.
One note--Wil Cordero, a much better hitter than Harold Reynolds, is
currently injured. I'm guessing he's the usual starter. But why is Karros
on the bench behind Brogna?
Shapiro's rating: D+. Just not good. Once Hidalgo and Magglio mature,
that'll change a bit. And Cordero heals from his injury.
Shapiro's strategy: B. Its hard to do anything right with this lineup, but
I think I still see a few problems.
Shapiro's lineup: CF Hidalgo/2B Cordero/RF M. Ordonez/LF Whiten/DH Karros/1B
Brogna/C Wilkins/3B Boggs/SS Weiss
Rotation:
A beacon of light for the future. Not a bad group, really.
Daryl Kile: Chris went out and acquired him from Galena. This annoyed me,
because I also wanted him. And why? Well, his ratings don't look amazing
at first glance, but he's been very good historically. No dominant pitches
but a few good ones but he has great arm strength and fantastic endurance,
which makes him a solid staff ace anywhere he goes.
Marc Valdes: He's better suited for a relief role than as a starter. He's
a control pitcher but he only throws one pitch well. Which makes him very
vulnerable to grooving a fastball down the middle or leaving a slider
hanging. Not the #2 man I want on my team.
Bill Yohe: Brought over from Galena as well. He gave Matt Jeff Blauser for
Yohe and a few others. He throws a sinker/curve/fastball--like Shane
Reynolds. They are all quality pitches, 60 or higher--like Shane Reynolds.
His AS isn't too high, but he has good endurance around 80--like Shane
Reynolds. The only thing keeping Mr. Yohe from being Shane Reynolds is the
fact that he's only 22 and his control is only 60. Once that develops, I
think Bill Yohe may be one of the best pitchers to grace the PVBL in the
first decade of the next millenium.
Jackson Pride: I gotta admit, I like this kid too. His pitches aren't
superb, but a cursory look at his ratings makes me think he'll be a very
solid 2/3 type starter for a long time. He's young, he's already throwing 4
pitches, 3 over 50 with a 66 curve, good core ratings, and once his control
develops...watch out.
Donovan Osborne: A great 5th man in any rotation, I'd move him to 2nd in
this group. Another control pitcher, but unlike Valdes he has a great
slider and a good change, so he can actually throw good, accurate pitches.
Shapiro's rating: Right now, a B-. In two or three years, we're looking at
a solid A if they hold on to Yohe and Pride.
Shapiro's rotation: Kile, Osborne, Yohe, Pride, Jeff Austin (keep the
prospect trend going, get these guys some experience)
Bullpen:
Hmm. A collective GUH from the audience. I suppose Al Leiter is allright,
and could start in a pinch, but you could do way better. Christiansen is
decent, as is aging Baez, but neither stand out. Telgheder and McElroy are
both simply average, and Mark Clark isn't much of a closer.
What I do like is that they mostly all throw sinkers. Sinkers are wonderful
things because they get you groundballs. Most sinkerball pitchers have high
GF ratings too. Keeping it on the ground gets you outs. But there isn't a
bona fide, quality reliever in this group.
Shapiro's rating: B-/C+. It would be worse but I'm a sucker for the
sinker.
Shapiro's pen: N/A. I'd never have a pen like this on any team. If I were
Tampa, knowing I probably wasn't going to contend for the division title,
I'd call up guys like Loewer, Rolling, Castillo, Saunders, et al, and just
let them get some experience.
Farm/Bench:
Well, it depends what you look at. Eric Chavez looks like a very solid
prospect to replace Wade Boggs next year. And the bench players in the
majors, like Henley, Weiss, Mouton, and Stairs aren't much worse than the
starters. But there isn't a whole lot of offensive future on this team. I
think, in time, Hidalgo/Ordonez/Chavez will make a very solid trio, but you
need more than that to make a winner.
Then you hit page down on your browser, look at the pitchers of the future,
and your jaw hits the floor. With Pride and Yohe already in the majors, you
wouldn't expect a whole lot more. But Jeff Austin looks solid, as do Jim
Rolling and Tony Saunders. Foutz is a good prospect in LOW. Also, Sandy
Carroll is on the DL now, another young talent. I see that my team is going
to have some competition down the road.
GM/Player Ops:
He made a lot of deals last year in June. Picking up Bill Yohe for Blauser
was brilliant. Getting Chavez and Fowlkes for a few veteran pitchers was a
smart move too. Trading Jaha for Karros I don't even pretend to understand.
Getting Boggs and Drabek was a waste of time. Giving up Michael Coleman for
more pitching makes no sense. The rest of the trades were pretty
insignificant. But as I look at Tampa now, and look at where they were last
year, I have to say that Chris, you did a great job. This is exactly how to
rebuild, so take notes, bottom-dwellers. My only advice is to try and trade
some surplus pitching prospects for some hitting prospects. With the team
you have now, you'll still be losing games in a few years. You'll be losing
2-1 and 1-0 instead of 5-0, but its still a loss when you score less runs.
Shapiro's rating: B+. Good improvement.
Overall (in 2000): C
I'll be surprised if they finish the season out of 3rd or 4th. This team
has two problems, one which will be solved and one which could be solved.
The first problem is that they are still a few years away from competing.
No problem--by 2002 their staff will be formidable. The other problem is
the lack of hitting now and the lack of offensive prospects. I think Tampa
has the trade bait in extra pitching to bring in some bats (or future bats)
and just about every draft pick this team makes should be a hitter. 4th
place in 2000, 3rd in 2001, and they'll be harassing me for the division
title by 2002.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
SPRINGFIELD ATOMS
Owner--Aaron Watson
They always seem to play better than I think. The reason? Joey Hamilton.
But while Joey rakes in the awards, the team stays around .500. Do they
have what it takes to rise above and catch the Hogs? Its hard to do that
without being active, and that may be the biggest problem for this
franchise--Watson doesn't seem to do much. They're in last now, and they
may end up there.
Lineup:
These kinda look computer generated, but maybe not. If they aren't computer
generated, I have "issues" here :)
I'll just look at the vs RHP lineup cause there are major differences.
This team has a similar problem to Tampa, they're slow. I guess that means
Milligan and Bell default to 1-2 in the order, but both are much better
suited to hitting second. Tino and Albert form a very strong 3-4, but the
lineup after there is...well...putrid. Greg Myers, batting 5th? When he
was a Groundhog, I traded him cause he couldn't hit. He still can't. In
fact, I'd swap him and Angel Sherid, or even consider batting Sherid 2nd,
Bell 3rd, and then Tino and Albert to spread the talent a bit. Ripken, Fox,
and Dickson don't bring anything special to the bottom end of the order
either. Cal is over the hill now, Fox never reached the top, and Dickson, a
psuedo-prospect, probably won't even see the top of the hill.
Shapiro's rating: C-. Just a tad bit better than Tampa because of the
first 4 and Sherid.
Shapiro's lineup: Milligan, Bell, Sherid, Belle, Martinez, Ripken, Myers,
Dickson, Fox
Rotation:
Every team does something well. These guys have a solid rotation, no
question about it.
Joey Hamilton: Without him, they'd be the worst team in the game. But with
him, they are a pesky annoying mosquito that always tries to make me think
they'll have a shot at the division title. Hamilton is one of the best. He
won his first Cy Young at age 25 last season. Now that his control is up to
96, there's no telling how many more he'll get. He may have the strongest
core ratings for any pitcher in the game, 94 87 96. His best two pitches
are those that get grounders, the sinker and slider. He doesn't throw a
fastball--and he doesn't need to.
Justin Thompson: He's growing into a solid pitcher. 73 76 96, he throws
the best 3 pitches (fastball/sinker/curve), and he'll be an effective
pitcher for many years to come. Once he develops his fastball and sinker
more, he will be one of the better 2nd starters out there.
Livan Hernandez: Yet another young gun. Very solid 3 man, only 23 years
old. This is another pitcher with a long, fruitful career ahead of him.
Mike Sirotka: He's a rookie, but he's older than the first 3. Sirotka will
have a short career as a mildly effective pitcher, but I think he'd be one
of the first to go if this team makes some trades. Just a role player.
Mike Gardner: Getting up there in years, but still effective. He's a
decent 5th starter, especially with the nice curve he throws. He'll retire
in a few years, but he won't ruin anything before he calls it quits.
Shapiro's rating: B/B+. That'll go up 1/3 of a letter per year as long as
Hamilton, Thompson, and Hernandez stay together.
Shapiro's rotation: Hamilton, Thompson, Hernandez, Sirotka, Tapani/Gardner
Bullpen:
It has its bright spots. Tapani and Moyer are actually a good pair of long
relievers, both capable of spot starting if/when needed. I prefer to go
with 1 long man though, and get my better guys in middle relief. Hasegawa
needs more control, but he and Manuel aren't bad middle men either. I've
never been a fan of the single setup man system, as they get so many
innings, but Mike Stanton is a good one. And Dan Consedine is an excellent
young closer, possibly the next PVBL bullpen ace.
Shapiro's rating: B. Solid pitchers in all roles, but only one real
standout, Consedine.
Shapiro's bullpen: Long--Moyer, Middle--Tapani/Gardner, Hasegawa,
Setup--Stanton, Manuel, Closer--Consedine
Farm/Bench:
Like Tampa, they have some useful backups. Sandy Alomar is a very good
backup catcher, Velarde and Ryan both make useful backups as well. They are
pathetically short on offensive prospect and farmhands, though. Every
hitter in their AAA system is 28 or older, and their only two guys in LOW
are 23 and far short of spectacular.
On the pitching side, its a little better. They still only have 1 guy under
26 in AAA, but that's Pete Daley, who looks like he could be a useful
pitcher someday. They do have a few useful vets like Erik Hanson, Jim
Deshaies, and Bob Tewksbury who could step in for injured players. Their
only LOW player, Rudy Meola, looks like he could be a good reliever, one of
those no ratings/good pitches guys, but that's only if he gets some control.
GM/Player OPS:
He made two deals last year. He got Belle and John Valentin for Mike
Kinkade which strikes me as a deal that makes no sense for this team.
Kinkade is a versatile defender with an amazing bat (78 35 54 at age 20) who
will make a career eating up opponent pitching in Vero Beach. Not to say it
was a bad deal--that's not a whole lot to give for Belle and Valentin, but
it didn't make sense for the Atoms. He also got Tino and Moyer--for Randy
Myers and Cecil Fielder. This deal made a lot more sense. With Consedine
around, Myers was a spare part. And I'd much rather have Tino than Cecil.
Not sure what they did in the offseason, if anything. I don't see any new
faces. For this team to get consistently competitive, they'll need more
than that.
Shapiro's rating: C.
Overall: C. I'm interested to see if they will hold off Tampa. If they do
manage to stay ahead this year, and Watson doesn't turn this team around,
they might begin a long, slow descent into the perennial cellar. Their best
hope is to build a team around Joey, Justin, and Livan.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
HOUSTON HELLRAISERS
Owner--Jay Scudieri
They're always on my tail, always trying to wrestle the title away from me.
I don't think this season will be any different.
Lineup:
Well, they have a great start to the order. Up top is Edgar Renteria,
possibly the best young shortstop who isn't named Alex Rodriguez. He's
already 84 49 50 at age 21. Oy. And his defense is amazing. But the
problem for these guys, like everyone else in this division except me, is
that they are painfully slow. Greg Colbrunn, who hits the ball well but
barely runs at all hits second. Then you have another slugger, Vinny
Castilla, and then Mike Piazza, so by the time you get past Jose Canseco and
to the speedy Mike Cameron, the bases are more clogged up than the drain of
a public shower. Two more slow sluggers, Ed Sprague and Jose Canseco, hit
7th and 8th. Homer Bush, a youngish 2B who can't hit, but has some speed,
brings up the bottom.
Shapiro's rating: B+/A-. I admit, you throw together 5 guys with 98 or 99
power in the same lineup, along with 2 guys who have 77 and 75 and two
relatively fast middle infielders without power, and you are bound to score
runs. But its station to station offense. They hit the ball and wait for
someone else to hit it over the fence. It works sometimes, and sometimes it
fails miserably. If the wind is blowing in hard, or you just don't get the
pitches to hit, its tough to win that way.
Shapiro's lineup: Renteria, Cameron, Castilla, Piazza, Canseco, Olerud,
Sprague, Gant, Bush
Rotation:
It used to be one of the best out there. But a few of the big guns have
left down. Still solid.
Pat Hentgen: A very good ace, amazing endurance. I like his combination of
pitches. Always successful, always will be. I'd love to have him aboard
the Hogs.
Mariano Rivera: Now that his slider is almost up to 60, I am willing to
call him an awesome starter. He could still be an incredible closer. But
you just gotta start the kid. He'll make it worth it.
Bobby Witt: Always surprisingly good, and I think its because of his 89
sinker. His control is, and always has been, too low to call him an ace.
But he's a very solid 3rd man in any rotation.
Tom Glavine: Ahh, Tom. Well, last year his ERA was over 7.00. As much as
you want to say its because he's in a hitters park, that was ridiculously
high. He's looked better so far this year. But he's nothing like the real
Tom Glavine, and I wouldn't want him in my rotation. He relies on an
average changeup, his ratings are mediocre, and he's a homerun waiting to
happen.
Jason Schmidt: Not sure when Jay got him, but he's a good one. Solid core
ratings, needs to work on the pitches, but he'll be a productive member of
the Hellraisers staff. The only other guy who could start would be Cal
Eldred, and I think I'd rather see Schmidt--but I don't know about Glavine.
Shapiro's rating: B+. It used to be an A+ rotation. But he traded some
pitching for even more hitting, I guess.
Shapiro's rotation: Hentgen/Rivera/Witt/Schmidt/Eldred
Farm/Bench:
Always a problem for this team. 1 injury and they are pretty much screwed.
However, they are rather deep at 1B now with Cox, Olerud, and Petagine. So
are much better equipped to deal with injuries now, anyway. But their farm
system is pathetic. Not a real prospect, other than Renteria, in the entire
offensive unit. No real useful backup pitchers, and no prospect pitchers on
the way. New owners, this is how to not build a winner. When you are
making your team into a winner, try to keep one eye on the future too.
Houston might eventually find a way to top the Hogs, but they'll never beat
us in the long run.
GM/Player OPS:
Its an interesting question here. Up until August, Jay was making trades,
adjusting his lineup for injuries, all that jazz. Then he just stopped.
Maybe he though he had it wrapped but, he underestimated the Hogs. We came
back and won a title which was, honestly, by all rights Houston's.
He made a few great trades, like getting Scott Erickson for Stottlemyre and
Tino Martinez. But through 2 trades, he basically gave up Albert Belle and
John Valentin for Ed Sprague and Bernard Gilkey, which I think is a bit
questionable. And while he took a few steps towards making the Hellraisers
better contenders, he took a huge step back when he deserted his team in the
crucial closing moments of the season.
Shapiro's rating: C-/D+. Its not often that the owner costs his own team
the division by not trying to fix major problems.
Overall: B/B+. Talentwise, this is a great team. It has been for about 3
years now. I never figured why they weren't better in '98, they almost beat
me in '99, and they should have a shot again this year. But it requires two
things--a good team and an active owner, at the least. Right now, I'm not
sure this team can count on the man in charge. No offense, Jay. You CAN
beat me. Your team is capable of it. But you need to pull your end of the
bargain too.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
PUNXATAWNEY GROUNDHOGS
Owner--Dan Shapiro (hey, that's me!)
Finally, my first FPS team and one of the most enjoyable teams I've ever
owned in any league. I've won the division title ever year. Season one, I
had a miracle year and won over 100. Now my division is much tough and
winning 90 is enough for a trip to the playoffs. I'm expecting a 4th trip.
Lineup:
Honestly, I don't think this is an ideal lineup. It was better with Klesko.
But damn, it is still good.
Dave Martinez is struggling a bit in the earlygoing, but I'm expecting him
to produce his usual .290 with 15-20 homers. I still can't believe I gave
up Rondell White after year 1 in the steal-a-player draft, but he has been a
great replacement. Second and third, well, are two of the best young
players in the game. Scott Rolen has been hitting second while Tony Batista
hits third. That may change next year once Rolen gets more power. But
these guys are 22 and 23, and have amazing careers ahead of them. 4th is
1997 MVP Jose Valentin. He's already got 6 homers and he has great speed
for a slugger. Berroa and Giambi, two big slow sluggers are hitting 5th and
6th. Then comes relatively young Alex Ochoa, another superb bat with speed.
Dan Wilson HAS to be the best 8th hitting in the game, and Robin Jennings is
no slouch batting 9th.
Shapiro's rating: B+/A-. It could use a tad more power and speed, but
Rolen, Batista, and Ochoa will all peak in the 90's so that will come in
time. And possibly, if Jennings falters, a better LF.
Rotation:
I think its probably the weirdest rotation of any team. I've been starting
two guys with sub-60 endurance for 2 or 3 years now. But they continue to
do well. My philosophy: they can throw me 6 or 7 quality innings, that's
fine. I don't need them to go 9, because my bullpen is usually good enough
to hold the lead. I'd rather them start and throw 6 good innings than
reliever and toss 1 scoreless frame.
Rocky Coppinger: He's not a great #1, yet. He might be. But he carries
his weight, wins 15 games a year, and keeps his ERA (usually) around 3.00 or
less.
Jon Lieber: The best low endurance starter in the game. Why? He throws a
sweet sinker and a nice slider, keeps the ball on the ground. And now that
he's up to 72 AS and 99 CO, he's solid everywhere but endurance.
Bobby Thomas: It really scared me when his ratings plummeted after 1998.
He's always been very reliable. Low AS, but he throws an amazing fastball
and a nice curve. He's always had good control, and he's always been a very
productive starter.
Sean Bergman: A poor man's Jon Lieber. That's exactly what he is. A bit
less AS, EN, pitchers are a bit lower, throws the same 3...and he pitches
like Lieber. Both throw real well.
Juan Guzman: I picked him up last year for the playoff run, but kept him in
the FA plan. He's got great core ratings and throws 4 pitches over 60,
including a 73 slider. He's only 30, so I think he could have a few good
years left. He's never pitched up to his ratings, but maybe this will be
his year. For a 5th starter, you don't get much better.
Shapiro's rating: B+/A-. I don't have an A pitcher starting. I also don't
have a B pitcher starting. They are all B+/A- type pitchers. Its great in
the regular season, because I don't feel I have a weak link in my rotation.
But in the playoffs, it can sometimes be a problem because I'm facing 3 and
4 man rotations. But it also gives me the versatility to put starters in
the bullpen for the playoffs too.
Bullpen:
Aaron says I have a knack for developing deep versatile bullpens. Well, I
look at this group and I agree. But last year, these guys were pathetic.
Ruffcorn was 0-7 before his season ended with an injury, Munoz and Worrell
had ERA's over 5.00 for most of the year, and Bottalico never got in.
This year, its been a lot better. Curly Karkovice is a good spot starter
and a fine long reliever. I couldn't trade Masato Yoshii, but I was happy
to keep him for a year more. He'll be a valuable injury replacement a
hopefully a good middle reliever. Tim Worrell will try and rebound from a
bad year. Munoz and Ruffcorn are still the setup men--I have faith.
They've been good so far. And Bottalico has been fine too, and has even
gotten a few saves.
Shapiro's rating: B+. It looks good to me.
Farm/Bench:
As the FA plan picks apart my team more and more, and I'm forced to trade to
make up for it, my bench dwindles away to nothing.
But I did pick up A.J. Hinch in the draft, a good pick. Jack Jackson and
Kevin Sefcik are averagely rated backups, but always outplay their ratings.
John Cangelosi has always been a great pinch hitter/runner, and Roberto
Kelly is a very solid backup. My minors are slowly getting better. Not a
lot of AAA talent, but Joe Netzel, Webb Messenger, and Karim Garcia are
three prospects with fairly high ceilings that could have an impact
eventually.
My pitching is kinda weak in the minors. I do have sometimes useful Henry
Neale, as well as sometimes useful Dustin Hermanson, and sometimes useful
Jim Burright. But none of these guys have the pitches to play everyday.
Steve Green had a disappointing offseason, didn't improve his pitches enough
to earn a callup, but he might get one eventually.
If there's anything the Hogs need to work on, its the future. With Ochoa,
Rolen, Batista, and the smattering of LOW prospects, they'll be ok for a
long while. But they'll need to improve the pitching farm to stay winners
forever.
GM/Player OPS:
Well, I traded Scott Aldred for Alex Ochoa. I think that deal will really
benefit me in the future. I traded Mike Hampton for Juan Guzman, and then
Guzman got injured--but he helped me in the playoffs. And then I traded
Masato Yoshii for Jodie Caffyn and some picks. Yoshii had a few clutch
starts over the last week or two of the season and helped get me my playoff
berth.
So what did I do? I wanted to make the playoffs, I saw what needed to be
done, and I went out and made a few deals to strengthen my team. What
happened? I came within a game of winning the World Series. If that
doesn't deserve a high grade, someone feel free to explain.
Shapiro's rating: A
Overall: A-. Still a great team, still the best in the division.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictions for the division (and cause I'm only doing mine, I can't fully
balance the records to a .500 scale, so I'm just gonna balance Riker to
.500)
Punxatawney: 95-67
Houston: 87-75
Tampa Bay: 74-88
Springfield: 68-94
Well, that's all for the Riker. I hope the rest of the division previews
are good as well!
--written by Dan Shapiro
